-
Foundation
established for
Russian arms sales
surge to region
-
Moscow’s military
sales likely to
surpass within the
next several years
the USSR’s high
water marks
-
U.S. is being pushed
out of market it
once dominated
-
New status quo
likely to last for
years, as economy of
scale and ongoing
maintance of
equipment likely to
preserve bond
In recent years, the
Russian Federation has
become one of the major
weapons suppliers to
Latin America. This has
satisfied two of
Moscow’s major goals:
greater profits and
economy of scale for its
weapons industry and the
continued amplification
of its presence in the
region. While this does
not signify that any
aspiration for a return
of a Soviet-style Cold
War-era sphere of
influence is in the
offing, it is important
to understand the actual
depth of Russia’s
burgeoning presence and
the range of influence
being exercised by it
within the region’s
military establishments.
Moscow’s developing
bilateral security
relations with Latin
American governments
have become a matter of
some concern for
Washington.
Venezuela
The
Russia-Venezuela arms
trade has generated, by
far, the most
international attention.
In 2006, Venezuela
startled the world by
announcing a significant
weapons purchase from
Moscow: 100,000
Kalishnikov assault
rifles, 24 Sukhoi
(SU-30) fighter jets,
and 53 military
helicopters. The
eventual price tag on
the unfolding deal came
close to $3 billion. The
aircraft already have
begun to be delivered to
Venezuela, with the
first two arriving on
December 8 2006, at the
Lieutenant Luis del
Valle Garcia Air Base.
Another component
increasingly tying
Caracas and Moscow
together is the
continuous flow of
military personnel, such
as pilots and
technicians, flying in
both directions to
provide and receive
training. Venezuelan
pilots already are
receiving flight
instructions from
Russian teachers, while
Russian technicians have
traveled to Venezuela to
instruct local mechanics
on how to maintain the
newly purchased and
relatively sophisticated
Russian equipment. Also,
plans are being laid out
to construct a factory
capable of the mass
production of the
Russian AK automatic
rifles in Maracay,
Venezuela’s Aragua
State. It is expected
that the facility will
be operational by 2010,
producing as many as
50,000 units per year.
There are numerous
reports that Venezuela
will also buy an
indeterminate number of
Antonov model 76
transport planes (which
will replace the US-made
C-130s), as well as
three Amur-class
submarines. The number
of transport aircraft
that Venezuela might
purchase has not been
specified, however
sources close to the
deal speak of a “large
consignment.”
The most recent
Venezuelan acquisitions
occurred early this year
when it was announced
that Caracas would buy
ten to 12 TOR-M1
anti-aircraft defense
missilie system from
Moscow. The BBC
reprinted an article by
the Caracas’ daily
El Nacional where
it quotes a retired
member of Venezuela’s
Presidential General
Staff, General Alberto
Muller Rojas, as saying:
“I do not know if there
will be more, but 12 is
too few; in any case,
there will be 12
batteries. To prevent an
air attack, more
missiles are needed.”
Such a statement coming
from someone who is
known to be very close
to President Hugo Chávez
fortifies the likelihood
of a higher volume of
military purchases with
Moscow appearing more
than willing to oblige.
In addition, Muller
Rojas’ intriguing
statement poses the
question of exactly who
might attempt to carry
out such an air assault
against Venezuela.
Argentina
Last
October, Argentine
Defense Minister Nilda
Garre met with Russian
deputy prime minister
Sergey Ivanov – who also
served until recently as
defense minister – when
the former handed Ivanov
a list of equipment that
Argentina might be
interested in acquiring.
The Russian ITAR-TASS
news agency has quoted
Garre as saying, “apart
from helicopters and
air-defense systems,
Argentina is most
interested in
air-traffic-control
equipment.” It is
unclear exactly what
type of technology was
on Garre’s wish list.
After the meeting,
minister Ivanov said
that Argentine officials
gave him a list of
weaponry they would like
to buy from Russia.
However, in a press
release that was later
distributed in Buenos
Aires, Garre stated that
Argentina was possibly
less interested in
purchasing weaponry than
buying four 3D radar
systems to monitor air
traffic entering the
country’s airspace. The
Ivanov-Garre meeting
came after a compelling
presentation by the
Russian arms export
company Rosoboronexport
at the influential
Sinprode-2006 exhibition
in Buenos Aires.
As Buenos Aires regains
its financial strength
after the meltdown that
started at the beginning
of the decade, its
desire to strengthen its
arm forces by purchasing
military equipment has
resurfaced once again.
For years, Argentina has
vocalized its interest
in purchasing new patrol
boats and helicopters,
though these efforts
were repeatedly deferred
as a result of the
devastating effects of
the 2001 economic
crisis.
Rosoboronexport’s recent
display of its product-line
in Argentina proved to
local military officials
that the Russian firm is
in a position to provide
a wide range of
equipment that the
nation’s armed forces
covet: T-90SK tanks, BTR-80A
and BTR-90 armored
transporters, the
Iskander-E missile
system, Sukhoi fighters,
the Mi-171Sh, Mi-17V-5,
Mi-35M, Ka-27PS and Ka-3
helicopter models. The
package of possible
purchase orders also
included Murena-E patrol
boats and batteries of
anti-aircraft missile
systems.
It is certain that there
will be much concern in
Washington over any
deals between Moscow and
Buenos Aires regarding
military sales. On that
subject, Garre has
declared that: “Buenos
Aires is not afraid of a
negative reaction from
the USA regarding
possible purchases of
Russian armaments […] I
believe that purchasing
arms is the sovereign
right of every country,
and this cannot
displease anyone.”
Peru
Since the
General Juan Velasco
Alvarado military
government (1968-75),
Peru has looked to
Russia for military
technology. Under his
government, Velasco
upgraded the country’s
military for one, if
unstated, main reason:
an eventual war with its
longtime nemesis Chile.
After hard bargaining
with Moscow, Velasco
purchased a broad range
of Soviet weaponry,
particularly heavy armor
and jet fighters. During
the recent Alejandro
Toledo and the current
Alan García
administrations, Peru’s
top military and
political leaders have
continued to look upon
Russia as their
traditional source for
weaponry. Moscow also
has been interested in
preserving this
relationship, in fact,
even trying to enhance
it. Last November, Latin
American department
director at the Russian
foreign ministry,
Alexander Dogadin,
toured a number of Latin
American nations,
including Peru, where he
declared that: “Peru is
our traditional regional
partner, and we are
broadening bilateral
relations in various
spheres.” In 2005, Lima
and Moscow signed a deal
to upgrade the country’s
aging Mi-8 and Mi-17
helicopter fleet.
Rosoboroneksport has
agreed to repair the
country’s 13 helicopters
at a total cost of $18
million. That year also
saw the signing of a
deal in which Lima
agreed to purchase five
Mi-35M armored
helicopters and five
Antonov An-32/Cline
transport aircraft,
worth a total of $140
million. The delivery
terms are still unclear.
Brazil
During
their meeting last
December in Brasilia
between Russian foreign
minister Sergei Lavrov
and his Brazilian
counterpart, Celso
Amorim, prospects for a
major weapons purchase
were discussed. The
Brazilian media has
reported that the final
deal would consist of 30
Russian military attack
and transport
helicopters, worth about
$400 million, which
would be consigned by
Brasilia to fight
smuggling and drug
trafficking. However, it
remains uncertain if
this purchase will ever
take place, as
negotiations are still
going on.
Cuba
In an
interesting development,
Agence France Presse
has reported that
Cuba’s interim leader,
Raul Castro (who also
has headed the country’s
armed forces for
decades), signed a
military technical
cooperation deal with
Russia in 2006. Given
Fidel Castro’s fragile
health, the fact that
his likely successor is
already playing a role,
albeit a relatively
small one, to renew
Cuba’s traditionally
strong ties with Russia,
might be a preview of
what the country’s
military policy would be
like under Raul Castro.
A provocative statement
of a renewed
Havana-Moscow defense
relationship was
articulate by Viktor
Baranets’ “Doctrine
Moved Up to the Front”
published in the March 7
2007 issue of
Komsomolskaya Pravda
newspaper. Regarding the
proposed missile defense
shield Washington plans
to build, with bases
throughout Central and
Eastern Europe, Baranets
argued: “How much
clearer it would be to
both Russians and
Americans and to all of
NATO if we adopted a
symmetrical response
that was very easy to
understand - say, by
deploying our own
missile-attack
early-warning stations
or space-based missile
defence systems on the
territory of friendly
countries like Cuba or
Venezuela.” It seems
only logical to conclude
that that Cuban military
purchases will soon take
place.
Colombia
In 2001,
Colombia purchased six
Russian attack
helicopters, type Mi-17
IV version, which were
delivered the following
year. The deal was worth
$36 million. According
to reports, all six
helicopters were
equipped with night
vision devices. A
spokesman for
Rosoboroneksport, Boris
Alekseyev, declared at
the time of the sale,
that the helicopters
“ideally meet the needs
of the Colombian army,
as they are two times
cheaper than their
American counterparts,
they can effectively act
in mountain conditions
and rapidly move whole
army units.” In spite of
the special ties that
Colombia has with the
U.S., Bogotá seems to
have no problem
purchasing weapons and
filling Moscow’s coffers
with some of the nearly
one billion dollars it
is likely to have
received from the U.S.
by the end of this year.
Mexico
Mexico has carried out a
small but interesting
military arm purchasing
program. Between 1999
and 2000, Mexico City
bought two An-32/Cline
transport aircraft and
two Mi-25 attack
military helicopters,
according to the
Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI). In 2002, the
Mexican navy purchased
Dzhigit launchers and
portable Igla/SA-18
Grousse anti-aircraft
missiles. According to
SIPRI, this last deal
was worth $2.1 million
for 30 missiles and 5
launchers. At the time,
the Russian news agency
ITAR-TASS
quoted Julio Cesar
Lizarraga, a member of
the Mexican lower house
and also of its navy
commission, saying that
the purchase “will
double the navy’s
ability” to protect
offshore oil deposits in
Campeche Sound against
possible a terrorist
attack. Purchases
continued in 2004 and
2005, when the Mexican
military bought around
100 Russian-made Ural
heavy off-road vehicles.
On November 2006
ITAR-TASS also
reported the opening of
a training centre for
pilots of Mi-17
helicopters equipped
with a unique
Russian-made simulator
last. The facility is
situated at a naval base
in the state of
Veracruz. Mexican
Secretary of the Navy
Admiral Marco Antonio
Peyrot Gonzalez headed
the high-level
delegation attending the
opening ceremony.
Furthermore, under the
terms of a Mexico
City-Moscow, Russian
specialists will
routinely travel to
Mexico to provide
maintenance services to
around 80 Mi-17
helicopters.
The Latin American
Military Balance
During
his trip to Brazil,
Lavrov huffily declared
to an audience of
distinguished citizens
that “We are not selling
[weapons] to any country
that violates
international laws.”
Meanwhile, General Raul
Isaias Baduel,
Venezuela’s defense
minister, has justified
his government’s
purchases, explaining
“all our acquisitions
are strictly for
defense.” While this
statement may be true,
it cannot be denied that
at a certain point
Moscow’s military sales
may have gradually
altered the geo-security
landscape of much of the
Americas. These results
are not likely to please
Washington policymakers.
Long time foes Peru and
Chile periodically
accuse each other of
embarking on a
unilateral arms race
that threatens the
other’s national
security. Lima’s
upgrading of its
helicopter fleet has
raised eyes in Santiago,
particularly as it comes
at the same time as the
purchase of a number of
Lupo-class
Italian frigates.
Concerns have been
expressed in Brazil, as
expressed in an August
2006 article in the
Brazilian newspaper
Correio Braziliense,
which was reproduced by
the BBC. The article
details that Brazil
recently made an order
for 12 Mirage 2000
aircrafts (with 15 to 20
years of service in the
Armée de l’Air,
the French air force).
The asking price was
$100 million; however,
the resulting economic
savings have been
cancelled out by certain
political and security
sacrifices, in which
Brazil lost out to Chile
and Venezuela in terms
of maintaining absolute
air supremacy. Felipe
Salles, editor of the
electronic magazine
Base Militar and a
defense expert, was
quoted in the
Correio article as
observing that: “the
United States is always
reluctant to sell
advanced weapons, like
BVR (Beyond Visual
Range) missiles and
laser-guided bombs, on
our continent. Probably,
the Russians will have
no reservations.” This
was in reference to
Chile and Venezuela’s
jet fighter purchases,
and Santiago buying F-16
planes, with Caracas
being already blocked by
Washington from
acquiring spare parts
for its existing feet of
F-l6s, resulting in the
purchase of the Sukhois.
Finally, Caracas’
military purchases have
raised wary eyes in both
Washington and Bogotá.
While it is ludicrous to
believe that Venezuela
may pose a security
threat to the U.S., the
South American country’s
defense policy is being
constantly characterized
as a destabilizing
factor in the region.
Historically, relations
between Colombia and
Venezuela have gone
through recurrent
periods of tension; an
example of this was both
countries almost went to
war in 1987, the Jaime
Lusinchi government
claimed that a Colombian
warship had, without
permission, penetrated
Venezuelan territorial
waters. Such tensions
have been further
exacerbated during the
Chávez-era after at
least, on one occasion,
the Venezuelan leader
declared himself to be
sympathetic to the cause
of Colombia’s leftist
guerrillas, while Bogotá
accused Venezuela of
being used as an R+R
facility for them. The
major de-stabilizing
effect between
Bogotá-Caracas relations
could very well be, a
result of the
construction of the
Kalishnikov factory in
Venezuela. Colombia and
Washington are bound to
be apprehensive that
some of the rifles that
will be produced in this
new installation may
ultimately find their
way to the Colombian
rebel groups like FARC
and ELN.
Interestingly, in spite
of critics pointing to
an arms’ buildup among
the region’s militaries,
this has not been the
case so far. Aside from
the short-lived,
non-declared spats
between Peru and Ecuador
in 1995, there have been
no major inter-state
flare ups in the region.
Some experts have even
minimized the legitimacy
of any U.S. concern over
Venezuela’s weapons
purchases, dismissing it
as simply a normal
transaction which lacks
any provocative
connotations. Retired
general Alberto Miller
told Inter Press Service
in a 2005 interview that
“it would be ridiculous
for the world’s major
powers, which routinely
spend huge sums on
defence, to classify as
an ‘arms race’ the
purchase of 100,000
rifles or 40 helicopters
for a country that, like
Venezuela, [that] has a
difficult border of over
2,200 kms to guard on
its western frontier
alone.”
Cash to the Kremlin
Mounting
weapon sales to the
region in recent years
have increased Moscow’s
foreign currency
earnings. In a March
1997 interview published
in Nezavisimaya
Gazeta, Boris
Kuzyka, Assistant to the
Russian President on
Military-Technical
Co-operation with
Foreign Countries,
explained that
hard-currency returns
from military-technical
co-operation have
doubled: from $1.7
billion in 1994 to $3.4
billion in 1996. The
Russian official went on
to mention that the
regions most promising
for Russian Arms exports
were the Middle East,
South East Asia and
Latin America.
The continuous export to
regions like those
Kuzyka mentioned helped
Russia tie the U.S. as
the world’s top arms
exporter between 2001
and 2005, harnessing
around 30 percent of the
global market, according
to a report by SIPRI’s
Arms Transfer database.
President Putin has
declared, according to
Agence France Presse
(AFP), that Russia had
sold arms to 61
countries around the
world in 2005, resulting
in six billion dollars
in signed contracts that
year –a post-Soviet
record. AFP also cites
Pavel Felgenhauer, a
Russian defense expert,
saying that while Russia
had become the biggest
arms exporter in the
world in terms of
volume, it still lagged
behind the United States
in terms of the “actual
money” earned and the
total value of contracts
signed but for later
delivery. Nonetheless,
said Felgenhauer,
“Russia is still far
from returning to
Soviet-era export
levels, which were ten
times higher.” This
point of view is shared
by Vladimir Pakhomov,
deputy director-general
of Rosoboroneksport has
said that “At the
moment, Russia’s share
in arms exports to Latin
America is not
sufficient.”
The Venezuela arms deal,
among others, is slowly
but steadily bringing
the volume of the Latin
American arms trade to
pre-1991 levels for
Moscow. In fact, Russia
already has surpassed
the U.S. in arm sales to
the Third World, with
France coming in third.
According to a November
2006 CanWest News
Service story by
Steven Edwards, a U.S.
Congressional report
says Russia’s US$7
billion in arms and
ammunitions deals with
developing countries
accounted for almost 25
percent of the US$30
billion in its total
2005 contracts. France
inked agreements to
supply US$6.3 billion
and the United States
came in with US$6.18
billion, while China
registered US$2.1
billion in such sales.
More information can be
supplied by the
Congressional Research
Service’s Report
entitled: “Conventional
Arms Transfers to
Developing Nations,
1998-2005” published
last October. The report
notes that Moscow
exported $300 million
worth of arms to Latin
America between
1998-2001, and $600
million between
2002-2005. The likely
exponentially growing
Venezuelan arms
procurements should
vault past all such
barriers on such sales.
It is very likely that
the growing of Russian
weapon sales to Latin
America will continue
over the coming years.
President Putin has
shown himself as a big
supporter of these sales
in order to expand
Russian influence abroad.
As reported by the
International Herald
Tribune, Russian
customs figures show
Russian arms exports -
of which Rosoboronexport
controls 90 percent of
the market - have grown
by almost 70 percent
since Putin established
the agency in 2000. In
addition, nations like
Cuba and Venezuela have
few other sources for
military equipment, due
to their strained
relations with the U.S.,
making Russia their
natural weapon supplier,
given that the U.S. has
veto rights over the
sale of any weaponry
containing U.S.
components.
Prophecies that Come
True
In April
2005, Aleksandr Fomin,
the deputy director of
the Russian Federal
Service for Military and
Technical Cooperation,
declared: “There are
good prospects for
boosting our
military-technical
cooperation with Latin
American states […] We
can offer Latin American
states not just arms and
military equipment, but
also military
technologies,
cooperation in
developing and
manufacturing arms and
licenses to produce
Russian equipment.”
Fomin was speaking
almost prophetically, as
Russia’s presence in the
arms trade, particularly
as it regards Latin
America, which has
boomed ever since.
This analysis was
prepared by COHA
Research Fellow Alex
Sánchez
March 20th, 2007
Word Count: 3000
